Coindesk's Omkar Godbole described the phenomenon of "speculative frenzy" in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, calling it a manifestation of irrational exuberance and greed among traders. According to him, the current situation may be an indicator of an approaching market peak.
The expert stressed that to monitor for signs of a "speculative frenzy" it is necessary to take into account various complex indicators, such as perpetual financing rates and social trends. However, he also pointed out an easier way, which is to track the spread - the difference between the prices of next-month and current-month BTC futures contracts traded on major exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or Deribit.
The expert explained that the front month contract and the next month contract have different expiration dates, and their price difference can serve as an indicator of current market sentiment. For example, if the spread becomes significantly larger than usual, this may indicate speculative sentiment among traders.
According to BloFin's head of options trading and research, Griffin Ardern, an upward sloping futures term structure typically indicates that longer-dated contracts are trading at a premium to shorter-dated ones. When the difference between the next and current months becomes too large, this may indicate speculative sentiment.
The same principle applies to the standard 5 BTC CME futures contract, which is considered an indicator of institutional activity. There have been instances in the past where the spread between next-month and current-month contracts exceeded $1,000, signaling the onset of a “speculative frenzy” and foreshadowing the peak of the bull market in the next few weeks. In early March 2024, analysts noted a similar increase in the spread above $1,000
