The cryptocurrency market displayed significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with Bitcoin taking the lead while altcoins lagged. FBS analyzes the various factors influencing the current landscape and forecasts for the latter half of the year.
Bitcoin: Market Leader and Future Prospects
Bitcoin once again confirmed its role as the leading asset in the cryptocurrency space. The rise in BTC prices was observed against a backdrop of an improving macroeconomic situation, with stabilizing inflation and a pause in interest rate hikes in the US. Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin fell to $76,300, but in Q2 it successfully rebounded, reaching new all-time highs.
> "Bitcoin has once again proven to be the core asset in the crypto market," say FBS analysts. "But the real question is whether we’re nearing the end of this bull cycle — or if the market still has room to run."
Altcoin Struggles in H1 2025
Among altcoins like ETH, SOL, and XRP, there was significant pressure in the first half of the year. The anticipated ‘altseason’ did not materialize, with most liquidity remaining concentrated in Bitcoin. Weak speculative interest and a lack of strong fundamentals limited the recovery of altcoins, leaving many assets underperforming year-to-date. Some, like XRP, showed relative stability due to strong communities and partnerships, but overall the altcoins failed to provide substantial growth.
Macroeconomic Indicators Influencing the Crypto Market
In the second half of 2025, market attention will shift to key macroeconomic signals. According to FBS, three main forces are likely to shape the direction of the crypto market:
* **The US Federal Reserve**: Should the Fed begin cutting rates, risk assets could gain new momentum. However, if the pause continues or policy shifts back to tightening, pressure on crypto may return. * **US Dollar Index (DXY)**: Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction to the dollar. A stronger DXY could weigh on crypto sentiment. * **Stock Market Performance**: Correlations between major indices and crypto remain strong. Weakness in tech stocks could spill over into digital assets.
FBS analysts also highlight that bull markets tend to peak 200–500 days after a Bitcoin halving, putting potential cycle tops around Q4 2025 to Q1 2026.
The financial landscape of cryptocurrencies in the coming months will be largely defined by the current economic conditions. Significant attention is drawn to the actions of the Federal Reserve and the state of the stock market. Market participants must remain vigilant, as changes in price directions for crypto assets are possible.
