Alphractal has outlined two critical scenarios for Bitcoin’s price in its latest report, based on the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Average Price.
What is Market Average Price?
The Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Average Price is a metric that tracks potential tops and bottoms for Bitcoin. It is derived from the Market Average Price, considering possible peaks and troughs without counting mined Bitcoins.
The Bullish Scenario
According to Alphractal, if Bitcoin breaks above $114,000, it could trigger a bullish rally with targets above $161,000. In an optimistic view, the price may approach $190,000, depending on investor sentiment and market conditions.
The Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above $114,000 could lead to a sharp decline, with Bitcoin potentially dropping below $76,000. Alphractal notes Bitcoin's testing of resistance levels at key moments, such as late 2019, late 2021, and March 2024. Despite strong momentum earlier, Bitcoin faced selling pressure from long-term holders at the start of 2025.
Alphractal's analysis shows that Bitcoin remains volatile, and the current Market Average Price of $61,500 is similar to the worst-case scenario amid market conditions.
