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Analysis of Fed's Rate Cut Consideration Based on Employment Data

Jun 4, 2024

The relevance of incoming data from the US has been on the rise, signaling the necessity for the Federal Reserve to initiate a reduction in interest rates. As the money supply increases, the potential for enhanced liquidity to enter risk markets grows, potentially leading to upticks in the realm of cryptocurrencies. Historical patterns have shown similar occurrences in the past. Despite this, the Federal Reserve has opted to delay implementing rate cuts in initial meetings, taking into account a variety of indicators.

Significance of JOLTS Data for Cryptocurrencies

A crucial aspect for the Federal Reserve to contemplate rate reductions lies in the need for inflation to stabilize and for the employment sector to ease. This requirement underscores the importance of monitoring reports such as Non-Farm Employment, Unemployment figures, and Wage Growth data. Recently, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data were unveiled. This dataset assesses job prospects within non-agricultural segments across the United States.

While JOLTS data typically lags behind in reflecting employment market dynamics, it offers insights into the Federal Reserve's current status and efficacy. Powell, in assessments this year, hinted that an abnormal easing in employment conditions could prompt expedited rate cuts to restore equilibrium.

Amid persistent concerns about inflation, a significant softening in metrics like wage growth and employment levels is awaited. Such developments are likely to stimulate interest among cryptocurrency investors. Expectations for the JOLTS data stood at 8.35 million, with the previously disclosed figure at 8.488 million. However, the released figure settled at 8.05 million, significantly lower than anticipated. This subdued figure indicates a relaxing trend in employment conditions, propelling the BTC price above $69,800.

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