Peter Brandt, an experienced analyst who accurately predicted Bitcoin's 2018 collapse, has suggested that the leading cryptocurrency's bull run could be slowing down. In a blog post on Apr. 26, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin's bull market cycles have gradually lost momentum over time due to a statistical concept known as Exponential Decay. Each bull cycle has seen an 80% decrease in growth compared to the previous one.
Brandt is concerned that Bitcoin may have already peaked in the current cycle, estimating that it could reach around 80% of the growth seen in the previous cycle. He predicts a peak of $72,723, just below the all-time high of $73,750.07 that Bitcoin hit on Mar. 14. Brandt assigns a 25% probability to this scenario, warning investors to be cautious of a potential sharp correction in the crypto's price.
Despite the possibility of a correction, Brandt remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, suggesting that a retracement to the mid-$30s or 2021 lows could be beneficial in the grand scheme of things. Earlier this year, he had even predicted that Bitcoin could reach a high of $200,000 by August 2025, based on the current bull market trajectory.
In conclusion, while Brandt acknowledges the current risks associated with Bitcoin's bull run, he remains hopeful about its potential for future growth.
