Ethereum's native token (ETH) is experiencing its worst performance against Bitcoin (BTC) since the blockchain's inception in 2015, reflecting a trend of diminishing returns.
Historical ETH/BTC Analysis
A historical comparison of the ETH/BTC ratio over past cycles reveals that Ethereum has been a consistent underperformer. The last cycle began when Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 after the FTX collapse in November 2022, and this trend continues.
Current Market Overview
The rate fell below 0.0300 on Wednesday to 0.02993, marking a four-year low. ETH/BTC was last at these levels in January 2019. So far this month, the rate has fallen 15%, adding to a 44% drop last year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly fell to $98,000 before topping $105,000 following the launch of China’s artificial intelligence program DeepSeek. Ethereum, currently priced at $3,202, needs to climb to $3,360 to reverse the impact of the AI-induced decline.
Analyst Opinions
Despite ETH's underperformance, some analysts believe that this trend reflects Bitcoin's strength rather than Ethereum's weakness. "My general view is that the underperformance of the Ether-Bitcoin ratio is due to Bitcoin strength rather than Ethereum weakness," said Andre Dragosch, head of research on Bitwise’s European desk. Dragosch also noted Ethereum’s competitive struggle, stating that smart contract platforms like Solana (SOL) offer greater scalability, while Ethereum does not directly compete with Bitcoin as a store of value asset.
With Ethereum’s yields declining against Bitcoin, investors are watching closely to see if ETH can regain momentum or if this trend signals a longer-term shift in market dynamics.
