Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have raised their projections for the probability of ETF approvals for several altcoins, including XRP, Solana, and Litecoin, to 95%. This is due to the impending deadlines for SEC decisions on relevant applications.
Odds of ETF Approval
Seyffart states that analysts now view a wide range of altcoin ETFs as highly likely to be approved, with Rule 19b-4 filings already recognized and decision deadlines approaching.
Trends and Analysis
Investor optimism is buoyed by three key trends: increased SEC engagement with issuers, major tokens being treated as commodities, and recent ETF amendments reflecting a process similar to that which preceded earlier Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals. The potential approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) could serve as an important step toward broader acceptance.
Expected SEC Decisions
Decisions for Solana, XRP, and other token ETFs are expected from October through early 2026. Currently, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche are given 90% approval odds. Sui's odds sit at 60%, whereas Tron and Pengu remain at 50% due to regulatory uncertainties.
In conclusion, given the current trends and expectations, approval of ETFs for major altcoins appears likely in the coming years, which could reshape the cryptocurrency market.
