BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts the cryptocurrency market will peak in March this year, followed by a sharp correction. His forecast is based on the expected development of US dollar liquidity in 2025.
Arthur Hayes' Forecasts for 2025
Arthur Hayes predicts that the peak of the cryptocurrency market will occur in March 2025. This is attributed to the expected development of US dollar liquidity in early 2025, as Donald Trump enters his second term as President.
Sources of Liquidity and Their Impact
Hayes believes that US dollar liquidity will continue to fuel optimism in the crypto market. However, recent policy changes by the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are likely to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its tightening policy, which will reduce liquidity. Hayes suggests other liquidity sources might offset this effect, anticipating an increase in liquidity through the Treasury's actions.
The End of the Trump Bump Phase
Hayes predicts that by the end of the first quarter of 2025, the 'Trump Bump'—the market growth driven by political expectations—will start to wane. This may lead to a broader correction of the crypto market due to liquidity tightening and the upcoming tax season in April.
Arthur Hayes emphasizes that despite the initial increase in liquidity, the end of the first quarter could mark the beginning of a market correction. Political and economic factors complicate predictions, but Hayes continues to closely monitor developments.
