Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, outlined three major factors that he believes may lead to new all-time highs for Bitcoin. His analysis ties regulatory developments in the US with changes in the global economic outlook.
Regulatory Changes and Stablecoins
One of the most impactful developments is the ongoing effort to exempt stablecoin reserves from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). This rule limits the amount of capital that banks can use in certain assets, including stablecoins secured by U.S. Treasuries.
If lawmakers successfully exclude such assets from the SLR calculation, banks could hold more stablecoins without increasing capital requirements. This would create an opportunity for greater institutional liquidity in the crypto market.
US Legislation and Market Confidence
Another major catalyst, as noted by Hayes, is the US Senate Genius Act. New regulations formally legitimize the use of legal stablecoins collateralized with the dollar and outline specific requirements for reserve management and public disclosures.
Within the framework of the law, stablecoins larger than $10 billion can be introduced by the largest banks, while smaller ones may operate under state supervision. Hayes believes this will provide the stablecoin industry with the necessary transparency and regulatory confidence.
Global Politics and Asset Impacts
Hayes also highlighted the current state of global politics, noting a politically orchestrated calm between U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Though existing tensions persist, this calm demeanor may be viewed by global investors as an opportunity to re-enter risk assets, such as Bitcoin.
According to Hayes, the convergence of these factors opens the door for a significant Bitcoin rally. As regulatory frameworks evolve and market conditions improve, all eyes are on whether institutional capital will respond to these signals.
