BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes shared his concerns about the future of cryptocurrencies, citing economic conditions and decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Risks Due to Federal Reserve Policy
Arthur Hayes believes that the efforts of central banks to control inflation have become a new challenge for cryptocurrencies. 'The Fed's got everyone trained like Pavlov's dogs,' says Arthur. 'Rate cuts come, and everyone buys the dip. But this time, things are different.'
Consequences of the COVID Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the economic landscape. Governments, especially in the U.S., went on a spending spree, which caused inflation to rise. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates. But in August 2023, at the Jackson Hole conference, the Fed Chair hinted at a rate cut, causing a panic response in the markets.
Markets and Government Roles
Arthur Hayes noted that the rising balances of the Fed's Reverse Repo Program indicate tightening liquidity conditions. Increasing deficit and lack of political will to raise taxes might worsen the situation. The Fed or the Treasury Department might be forced to step in. Hayes expects the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries could hit 5%, a level he believes will create chaos in the financial markets.
Arthur Hayes continues to monitor the situation and awaits clearer signals from the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury. For now, he remains cautious about cryptocurrencies, despite being confident in their fundamental prospects.
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