In a recent interview, Arthur Hayes discussed how the impacts of trade wars will influence financial markets and Bitcoin's value.
Global Governments and Money Liquidity
Hayes pointed out that governments worldwide will inevitably have to print massive amounts of money to mitigate the effects of rising trade barriers. Historically, such liquidity surges have led to significant Bitcoin rallies.
“Every major economy needs to print money to counteract the damage from declining globalization,” Hayes explained. “At the end of the day, they’re going to print — and Bitcoin benefits.”
Trade War and Stock Market Risks
Arthur Hayes also cautioned about potential fallout in traditional financial markets. He noted that if U.S. President Donald Trump were to successfully drive the current account deficit to zero, it could force foreign investors to pull back from American stocks.
“Foreigners earned trillions selling goods to America and recycled that money into Treasury bonds and U.S. tech stocks. If Trump pushes to zero the current account deficit, they have to sell stocks — it’s just math,” Hayes stated.
He argued that a major stock market sell-off would hurt U.S. government revenue from capital gains taxes, forcing policymakers to ramp up money printing — a scenario that would provide yet another tailwind for Bitcoin.
“This is where Bitcoin finally decouples from tech stocks,” Hayes added.
Central Banks Favor Gold
Despite Bitcoin’s increasing prominence, Hayes doubts that central banks will rush to add the digital asset to their reserves.
“I don’t think they’re mentally prepared for that leap,” Hayes said. “They understand gold. They’ve been trained on gold. They’ve read history books about gold.”
Instead, Hayes expects gold to remain the safe-haven asset of choice for central banks while Bitcoin continues to grow organically through grassroots adoption and structural macro shifts.
Throughout the discussion, Arthur Hayes emphasized the importance of the interplay between trade wars and monetary policy as critical factors in shaping the future of Bitcoin and financial markets, while asserting that gold will continue to provide stability for central banks.
