Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, traders on Polymarket are actively betting on the likelihood of a US military strike against Iran before the end of June.
Regional Situation
On June 16, the odds of a US strike against Iran surged to 67% on Polymarket, reflecting heightened anxieties over military escalation. However, this figure has since dropped back to 50%, illustrating how volatile public sentiment remains amid uncertain international developments.
Activity on Polymarket
Betting activity intensified following Israel's recent airstrikes against Iran. This led to a 4% drop in Bitcoin to $103,556, emphasizing the interconnectedness of financial markets with geopolitical events. The Polymarket contract titled 'Will the US strike Iran before July 1?' initially opened on March 31 with a 35% chance, which nearly doubled over the next two and a half months as tensions grew.
Opinions of Participants and Predictions
While Polymarket's contracts are not a guarantee of events, they serve as a real-time sentiment index, aggregating the opinions of thousands of participants. One bettor explained their reasoning: 'Trump said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran has one nuclear facility only US bombers can reach.' At its peak, the 'yes' option for US military action reached 67%, only to slide down to 50% by midweek, reflecting how quickly public sentiment can change in a volatile geopolitical environment.
Despite strong rhetoric from President Trump reiterating that 'Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon', no formal military action or statement has been released from the administration. As the end of June approaches, Polymarket traders appear divided, suggesting a 50/50 probability that the US will engage in direct military action.
