Bitcoin price predictions from Polymarket for the first quarter of 2025 show changing market sentiment.
Revised Bitcoin Price Forecast
Recently, Bitcoin's price forecast has been updated: Polymarket assessed a 4% chance of reaching $1 million. This reflects the grim sentiment in light of worsening economic conditions. While expectations are low, Polymarket also states that there's a 34% chance for prices to drop to $50,000 and a 50% chance for a rally to over $120,000.
Past Highs and Current Movements
Concerns have been raised that Bitcoin's local high in December might have been a cycle top. This view is based on current liquidity outflows and political-economic instability. Bitcoin's price has been bearish since January, potentially signaling a trend change. On Bitcoin's weekly chart, a rising resistance line can be seen, which previously indicated peaks, and crossing below it could confirm the cycle end hypothesis.
Post-Halving Rally: What's Next?
There is an optimistic probability of a Bitcoin rebound within the 7 months left before the end of the current cycle. Historical data suggests the possibility of a cycle peak 12-18 months after halving. Considering it's been 11 months since the last halving, market participants are expecting a strong move. However, institutional and governmental actions might alter historical patterns.
While the odds of Bitcoin reaching $1 million are slim, the market still holds potential for significant changes. Attention should be given to institutional and governmental actions, which can significantly influence these fluctuations.
