According to Polymarket, there is a 67% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $95,000. However, confidence remains low for hitting six-digit prices before the end of the year.
Odds for $95,000 and Beyond
Bets on Bitcoin reaching $95,000 are gaining momentum, but confidence in hitting $100,000 is not as high. On Polymarket, the closest price target has a 67% likelihood, but bets on $95K have decreased over time to 64%. Another more volatile market is betting on $90,000 by November 22, with the market peaking at 66% and then dropping to 54% due to market pressure changes.
Investment Trends and New Platforms
Polymarket remains speculative with no significant whale positions. This time, the largest bearish bet on BTC belongs to user Scottilicious with $14M in volume and $334K in profits. Kalshi is another Web3 platform active with BTC bets but with lower liquidity than Polymarket. New markets, such as Bodega Cardano, are also emerging, offering a bet on reaching above $100K by January.
Comparison of Predictions and Real Data
Comparing predictions shows CoinCodex aligning with BTC momentum toward $100K, predicting $100,817 in the next five days. Changelly's prediction sees $100K by November 23, based on market signals. However, BTC is still far from the long-term Coin Price Forecast prediction of $123,599 by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Rainbow Chart and Market Milk models provide contrasting insights into the market condition.
At this point, it's unclear if betting markets reflect data and signals or rely on other factors. They may provide a way to hedge other bets on BTC's direction.
