As Bitcoin hovers around $95,000, the crypto community questions the possibility of a significant correction. Mixed technical signals and historical Thanksgiving data highlight uncertainty for the short-term future of the cryptocurrency.
Mixed Technical Signals
Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase, losing support at $95,000 on November 25. This break from a bullish chart pattern has led the crypto to seek refuge on its 100-day exponential moving average. However, on-chain analysis provides optimism: the low level of 'value destruction days' indicates that long-term investors are firmly holding their positions, a historically bullish signal. Analyst Javon Marks projects an ambitious target of $113,386, representing a potential increase of 20.7% from current levels. Conversely, experienced trader Horse identifies a probable retest zone between $82,000 and $88,500, based on volume profile analysis.
Thanksgiving Effect
The traditional American holiday Thanksgiving, celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November, historically comes with specific changes in financial markets. Historical data shows that on this day, when traditional markets are closed, Bitcoin can also experience a temporary drop. A notable example was in 2020, when a November correction preceded a significant rally in December. Charles Edwards from Capriole Fund notes an interesting pattern: while Wednesdays are generally favorable for Bitcoin, Thanksgiving Thursdays have seen consistent drops over the past five years.
Forecast and Possible Scenarios
The next 24 hours will be crucial: a daily close above $95,000 would confirm a bullish scenario, while a failure to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average could hasten a test of support around $90,000. If Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong with high retention among historical holders, the Thanksgiving period and current technical resistances pose short-term challenges. The increased volatility expected in the coming days could provide opportunities for both buyers and sellers, depending on their investment horizon.
Bitcoin faces uncertainty driven by technical signals and seasonal Thanksgiving influences. Despite long-term optimism, short-term challenges require careful investor approach.
