The first months of 2025 have brought unexpected outcomes for investors as Bitcoin's bullish expectations have yet to materialize. Let's delve into key aspects of the cryptocurrency's future and altcoin ETFs.
Start of 2025: Expectations vs. Reality
The year 2025 began with high hopes for Bitcoin's rise, but reality differed: Bitcoin fell by 23% from its all-time high, reaching $80,000.
Probabilities for Bitcoin Price Levels
According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 in 2025 is 69%. The likelihood of Bitcoin exceeding $110,000 is priced at 59%, $120,000 at 47%, $130,000 at 37%, $150,000 at 29%, $200,000 at 15%, $250,000 at 12%, and $1,000,000 at 4%.
Expectations for Altcoin ETF Approval
Considerable focus is on the pending altcoin ETFs before the SEC. The data indicates that the Solana ETF has an 89% probability of approval, XRP ETF 77%, Litecoin ETF 72%, and Dogecoin ETF 69%.
The year 2025 has introduced significant uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market. Given the changing probabilities, investors should be prepared for various scenarios.
