Bitcoin, after a relatively stable second quarter, tested the $110,000 resistance mark in early third quarter 2025. Analysts caution that surpassing this level might lead to volatility.
Critical $100,000 Threshold for Bitcoin
Despite the calm summer months, macroeconomic developments are poised to influence market direction in the third quarter. Historically, Bitcoin’s peak is projected to occur between the 525th and 546th days post-halving, around mid-October. Analysts stress that tight global liquidity and high interest rates might limit guidance from previous cycles.
Anticipating Altcoin Season Amid Liquidity Challenges
The increase in global M2 money supply since the beginning of the year has been limited compared to the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. However, expectations for interest rate cuts are growing. The Federal Reserve has a 25% probability of reducing rates by 25 basis points in July and a 71% likelihood in September. If liquidity increases, trading volumes and prices of both Bitcoin and altcoins are expected to rise.
Future of Bitcoin and its Impact on Altcoin Market
Currently, the Crypto Altcoin Season Index stands at 23, indicating low investor interest in this sector. Yet, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance is nearing $115 billion, gradually approaching the $175 billion peak of 2021. Despite Bitcoin’s market dominance, Ethereum is tightly bound around $2,500, with historical data suggesting a potential average return of 24% in the fourth quarter.
Predictions for Bitcoin suggest a rise to $120,000 if institutional demand and ETF entries persist. This may bolster market expectations for growth, while altcoins may anticipate significant gains depending on Bitcoin's dynamics.
