Significant market shifts have occurred as Bitcoin has breached a 12-year support trendline against gold. Let's examine these changes and their potential implications.
Gold Rises as Bitcoin Trend Cools
The BTC/XAU ratio breakdown happened as gold prices surged to a record high of over $3,000 per ounce, while Bitcoin dropped by 11% so far in 2025. US gold ETFs have accumulated significantly, whereas Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows.
Has Bitcoin Hit Its Peak?
The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown resembles historical patterns, particularly during 2021-2022, preceding the last bear market. A divergence between rising prices and a falling RSI suggests waning upward momentum.
Potential Implications for Bitcoin
A continued drop in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may increase Bitcoin's vulnerability to declines in dollar terms. A break below key EMA levels could lead to further substantial price drops. However, such a scenario may be viewed as a correction within a bull market.
The situation in the Bitcoin and gold markets could develop in various directions depending on macroeconomic conditions and investor reactions. Paying close attention to technical indicators can help understand future price movements.
