The decline in Bitcoin prices has drawn attention from investors and analysts amid rising tension in the Middle East. This article examines current technical and on-chain indicators to assess potential future market movements.
Current Daily Dynamics
The daily chart presents a less optimistic picture for buyers. Bitcoin was trapped in a tightening range for several weeks, forming a descending triangle, which soon broke to the downside. The price tested the demand zone between $98K and $100K, previously serving as a launchpad for the May rally.
The reaction was swift: Bitcoin printed a long lower wick, indicating the presence of aggressive buyers. However, if this zone fails to hold on a closing basis, the price could quickly drop to the next significant support around $96K, which also aligns with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the breakdown structure clearly confirms bearish sentiments. The price sharply retraced, breaking through the fair value gap located between $100K and $102K, which now acts as resistance.
There are currently two fair value gaps interacting with the market: the recent one just above $100K and the older one near $106K. Unless Bitcoin reclaims the recent high near the $103K mark, it is unlikely to recover positions above $106K.
On-Chain Analysis and Conclusions
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) shows minimal selling pressure from miners. Current MPI values below 1 indicate that miners are holding their assets rather than selling. This suggests that the recent price dip is more likely driven by market structure and liquidity rather than long-term fundamental shifts.
Combined with stable exchange reserves and growing accumulation wallets, the data provides a neutral, slightly bullish outlook on the market.
Despite short-term bearish trends, on-chain data indicates that long-term holders are keeping their assets intact. Necessary changes in the market could occur if Bitcoin can hold above key support levels.
