Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 22% from its all-time high, sparking concerns among investors. CryptoQuant CEO analyzes the situation, indicating the bull cycle may be ending.
Liquidity Slowdown and Whale Sell-Offs
The slowdown in new liquidity inflows into the bitcoin market has prompted speculation about the end of the current bull cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the bitcoin bull cycle is over and prices are expected to follow sideways or bearish trends for the next 6-12 months. A key factor in his analysis is the behavior of large investors, known as 'new whales,' who have started selling bitcoin at lower prices, increasing market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Price Movement Analysis
Ki Young Ju applied Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various on-chain metrics, including Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). The analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average has entered a downward phase, historically associated with extended bear markets.
Weakening Bitcoin Demand
There has been a potential weakening in Bitcoin demand. In 2024, two demand peaks were observed in March and December, but following the March peak, the decline in demand momentum increased significantly. Historically, such patterns have preceded periods of price fluctuation followed by a gradual downtrend.
Current data and analysis suggest a potential end to Bitcoin's bull cycle, although the market continues to be influenced by many factors. Demand weakening and whale behavior should be considered when analyzing future prospects.
