As Bitcoin continues to trade below its all-time high, Markus Thielen, head researcher at 10x Research, believes there’s a possibility of following a pattern similar to 2024’s—a prolonged phase of consolidation after hitting record highs.
Market Analysis: 2024 Scenario
Thielen noted that he anticipated this scenario even before Bitcoin touched its latest peak of $109,000 on Trump’s inauguration day. His March report outlines concerns about Bitcoin’s current “High and Tight Flag” pattern, a technical formation that is generally bullish but, in this case, shows signs of weakness due to its fragmented structure.
Institutional Demand Weakens
Thielen also pointed to the spot Bitcoin ETF market as a key indicator of investor sentiment. Unlike previous price dips that sparked fresh buying, the current correction has seen little incentive for institutional players to step in. ETF flows coincide with our assessment that most ETF inflows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds.
Will Key Support Levels Hold?
While some traders remain cautious about Bitcoin’s near-term recovery, others are closely watching key support levels. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin is likely to retest $78,000, and if it fails to hold, it could slide further to $75,000. On the other hand, Iliya Kalchev from Nexo maintains that the low $70,000 range could provide a foundation for a stronger recovery.
For now, Thielen remains uncertain about Bitcoin’s next big move, advising traders to consider closing short positions. There is still no concrete evidence of an imminent rally. Macroeconomic factors like Trump’s proposed tariffs add to the market's uncertainty.
