Bitcoin is showing signs of stability, which may indicate a price increase in the coming weeks.
Decrease in Volatility and Predictability of Movements
A report from Matrixport dated July 4 notes that Bitcoin is experiencing a significant decrease in volatility, with realized price swings reaching multi-year lows. This may indicate market maturation, as the one-week implied volatility remains low in the 30s.
Investor Interest and Capital Inflows
Since April, nearly $14 billion has been invested in Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting strong long-term demand rather than short-term trading. However, overall capital inflows into the crypto market are slowing down, and achieving significant price increases will require more new capital.
Historical Trends and July Forecasts
July has historically been a profitable month for Bitcoin, with an average return of around 9%. Bitcoin may test the $116,000–$120,000 range in the coming weeks if this pattern holds, especially with improved sentiments in equity markets.
Despite positive trends, Bitcoin will need fresh capital inflows from retail investors and new institutions to sustain upward momentum.
