Bitcoin's recent fall to $103,000 sent shockwaves through global markets. The escalation of military actions in the Middle East triggered panic among investors; however, blockchain data reveals an interesting trend in whale accumulation.
War, Oil, and a Crypto Crash
As news broke of military actions in Israel, investors scrambled to seek safety in secure assets. Gold surged past $3,400 an ounce, oil prices spiked nearly 8%, and equities across Europe and Asia tumbled.
Bitcoin, often referred to as 'digital gold', failed to act as a safe haven, plunging from $107,000 to a low of $103,000 before slightly rebounding as Asian markets opened. Ethereum and Solana also lost 6-7% in a single session.
Analysts warned that should Iran retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global oil shipments, energy prices could soar and risk assets like crypto would 'fall off a cliff'.
Who’s Buying the Dip? Whale Accumulation
While retail traders fled, blockchain analytics present a different narrative. According to CryptoQuant, newly created whale wallets, each holding over 1,000 BTC, have accumulated more than 600,000 BTC (approximately $63 billion) in the past three months, doubling their share of the circulating supply.
These accumulations are attributed to fresh capital, likely from institutional investors positioning for a medium- to long-term rebound.
Historical Price Fluctuations of Bitcoin During Wars
Bitcoin’s response to wars and crises has always been volatile, but history suggests that sharp drops are often followed by significant recoveries. During the 2020 COVID crash, BTC lost half its value in days, only to surge 583% over the next year. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Bitcoin initially dropped 20% but rebounded 65% within two months. Even during the October 2024 Israel-Hamas flare-up, BTC fell 8.4% before rallying 22% in just 48 hours.
Despite the ongoing panic, Bitcoin’s ability to recover above $104,000 indicates inherent resilience. Investor focus is now shifting to Iran’s response and the potential for further developments in the region.
