Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the latest U.S. economic data. Despite an expected slowdown in inflation, the leading cryptocurrency fell by over 3% this Wednesday, dropping below the $56,000 mark.
A Favorable Macroeconomic Context
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.5% year-on-year in August, the smallest rise since February 2021. This data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirms a moderation in inflation in line with economists’ forecasts. Paradoxically, this news was not enough to support Bitcoin’s price. The flagship cryptocurrency thus fell below $56,000, ignoring what could have been perceived as a positive signal for risk assets. Traders appear to have already priced in these expectations.
Decoupling Indicates Risk Aversion
CryptoQuant’s analysis platform highlights an alarming phenomenon in its latest report: the decoupling between Bitcoin and gold. "*A period of negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with a rise in gold prices and a fall in Bitcoin, generally signals a risk-averse environment*", explains the analyst. This trend is part of a broader context where even the weakening of the dollar is failing to support Bitcoin’s price. CryptoQuant interprets this situation as a sign of “*broader risk aversion or financial stress*” in global markets.
Arthur Hayes' Analysis
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, provides further insight into this paradox. According to him, the anticipated Fed rate cut might actually be a bad omen for Bitcoin. This analysis suggests that investors might perceive the accommodative monetary policy as a sign of economic weakness rather than an investment opportunity.
The number of factors affecting Bitcoin's price continues to grow. Despite relatively positive macroeconomic data, the leading cryptocurrency continues to show a decline. This indicates a possible change in investor sentiment and their perception of the current economic situation.
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