Bitcoin plunged to $76,700 amid global economic turmoil, marking a 30% drop from its historic high. The situation sparks debates over trend reversal.
Technical Signals Favor Market Stabilization
The tremors in the crypto market are not unprecedented, but this 30% correction draws interest from analysts. Compared to the November 2021 drop, where BTC lost 41% in 60 days, the current dynamics are less pronounced. However, some believe a true bearish phase requires a loss of 40% or more. Historically, a 30% correction is not enough to classify a bear market. The dollar index has decreased from 109.2 to 104, reinforcing the thesis of investors remaining in risk assets.
Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Beyond technical indicators, the macroeconomic context could favor a bitcoin rebound. A key element concerns fears of a US government shutdown. Budget discussions in Congress must conclude by March 15, and failure could affect traditional financial markets. Such a situation could paradoxically strengthen bitcoin, often seen as an alternative during political instability.
Potential Capital Influx
The US real estate market shows critical signs, with signed contracts hitting historic lows in January according to the National Association of Realtors. Moreover, 7% of FHA-backed mortgages are delinquent over 90 days, surpassing 2008 levels. Some investors may redirect capital toward scarce, inflation-resistant assets like bitcoin.
If these trends continue, BTC could return to $90,000 faster than expected. The coming days will be crucial to determine if this correction forms a true floor or further tremors are expected.
