According to a report released by K33 analyst Vetle Lunde, investment flows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to significantly impact Bitcoin prices, even amidst declining trading activity and increasing geopolitical risks.
Correlation Between ETF Inflows and Bitcoin Prices
Lunde pointed to a strong 30-day correlation between ETF inflows and Bitcoin returns, with an R² of 0.80. This indicates that ETF flows explain approximately 80% of price variance over that period. Over the past month, Bitcoin ETFs added 13,000 BTC, marking the weakest 30-day inflow since April 23.
Impact of Corporate Bitcoin Acquisitions
Lunde noted that the influence of the growing emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies has been less consistent. A weaker R² of 0.18 was observed between 30-day returns and corporate BTC acquisitions, reflecting a softer price correlation compared to ETFs. For instance, Twenty One, backed by Softbank, accumulated 37,230 BTC by exchanging shares for coins held by Tether and Bitfinex.
Geopolitical Risks and Their Market Impact
Geopolitical tensions have rattled derivatives markets. Bitcoin briefly dipped to $98,200 amid U.S.–Iran conflict fears, before rebounding to $105,000 on ceasefire news. This period saw the largest one-day drop in BTC perpetual futures open interest since August 2024, with 17,394 BTC in liquidated positions.
ETF flows continue to be a key factor determining Bitcoin's price despite market instability and the influence of corporate acquisitions. Geopolitical events may also sustain high volatility in Bitcoin prices in the future.
