As 2025 approaches, adopting a measured and analytical approach to Bitcoin’s prospects becomes crucial. By considering on-chain data, market cycles, macroeconomic indicators, and more, it is possible to paint a data-driven picture that goes beyond mere speculation.
MVRV Z-Score: Rising Potential
The MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s realized price and market value. This ratio, standardized for volatility, provides a clear picture of market cycles. Currently, the MVRV Z-Score indicates significant upward potential.
Pi Cycle Oscillator: Bullish Trend Reviving
The Pi Cycle Oscillator tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages. The crossing of these averages often signals a peak in Bitcoin’s price. At present, these moving averages show an upward trend, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a robust growth phase.
Macroeconomic Background and Historical Trends
Reviewing Bitcoin’s historical price movements reveals that after each “post-halving cooling” period, an exponential growth phase typically follows. Based on previous cycles, we are approaching this critical juncture, where Bitcoin could achieve substantial gains. Macroeconomic factors also support Bitcoin’s performance in 2025. Despite the strengthening of the US Dollar Index, Bitcoin is showing strong performance during this period. Given their typically inverse relationship, a reversal in DXY’s strength could further enhance Bitcoin’s value. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global M2 money supply, also present favorable conditions for Bitcoin. The contraction in money supply observed in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, signaling a more conducive environment.
Nearly all data points indicate a bullish market for Bitcoin in 2025. However, it is essential to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Yet, current data suggests that Bitcoin may have its best days ahead.
