Recent on-chain data indicates a potential strategic buildup of Bitcoin, as the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric has reached historically low levels.
Bitcoin’s Accumulation Phases
The Bitcoin VDD chart has revealed four significant accumulation phases: January and October 2023, October 2024, and March 2025. Each phase is characterized by a sharp decline in VDD, indicating reduced coin movement and increased conviction among long-term holders. The current reading is the lowest since mid-2024, historically preceding strong bullish moves.
Smart Money Holding Steady
Currently, there are no signs of profit-taking from smart money. Red circles on the Bitcoin VDD chart point to four distinct selling spikes in January, April, July, and March 2025, each corresponding to local tops. However, there is no such spike now. The lack of realized value destruction supports the theory that smart money is staying put, contributing to the formation of a price floor around the $82,000 level.
Conclusion: Market Prospects
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $82,011, below both the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages. Despite the bearish short-term structure, the Accumulation/Distribution Line is stable, indicating that distribution pressure has not increased. This divergence could indicate a hidden bullish divergence, which would be confirmed if the price stabilizes and breaks above the $84K-$85K resistance zone.
Bitcoin's current low VDD environment, coupled with the accumulation behavior of long-term holders and muted distribution metrics, suggests a potential bottoming phase. If historical patterns hold true, BTC may be gearing up for its next bullish impulse.
