The evolution of the Bitcoin price in 2025 will depend on three main parameters: macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the arrival of nation-states.
Macroeconomic Aspects
Despite the optimism surrounding the creation of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the US budget will likely not return to balance. Debt and money supply are expected to grow, driving inflation. This is also the main driver of Bitcoin's appreciation amidst growing deficits and sluggish productivity.
Inflation in 2025
In 2024, inflation in the United States was close to 3%. Increased energy production promised by Donald Trump could boost productivity. However, achieving maximum oil production will take time, potentially prolonging asset inflation due to rising money supply. Even if consumer prices stabilize, asset inflation will persist.
National Strategic Reserves and Corporate Investments
Donald Trump may fulfill his commitment to a 'strategic reserve of Bitcoins', potentially causing a domino effect as other countries follow suit. Companies are also increasingly integrating Bitcoin into their treasury assets thanks to changes in accounting rules and the creation of Bitcoin ETFs. This practice is becoming more prevalent.
Bitcoin continues to attract attention amid macroeconomic and geopolitical changes. Whether through national reserves or increased corporate interest, its significance in the global economy is growing.
