Axel Adler Jr.'s recent analysis presents key trends and forecasts in the current bull cycle of the Bitcoin market, as well as factors influencing its stability.
Current Bull Cycle and Corrections
Axel Adler Jr. noted in his research that since the bull cycle began in November 2022, Bitcoin has faced only two deep corrections. He pointed out that after drops exceeding 30% in August 2024 and April 2025, prices quickly rebounded and reached new highs. Other corrections remained within a 10-20% range, functioning as a classic 'shake-out'.
Market Maturity Signals
Adler Jr. highlighted that the current decline based on the simple moving average is only at -7%, while the current pullback is limited to -4.7%. This indicates a calm consolidation process in the range of $100,000 - $106,000. He emphasized that the 'deep correction-accumulation-new rise' cycle repeating in the market is evident in this bull market, and the retracements are gradually narrowing, which serves as a strong signal of market maturity.
Bitcoin Flows and Exchange Trends
Another significant point Adler Jr. brought attention to is the BTC flows on centralized exchanges. The daily average total flow (input + output) dropped to 40,000 BTC, the lowest level in the last 10 years. This indicates that investors tend to withdraw their BTC from exchanges and hold them for the long term, suggesting a potential liquidity shortage in the market. The weekly net flow remains negative at –4,300 BTC, indicating that the number of coins deposited lags behind the amount withdrawn.
Thus, the analysis indicates that the Bitcoin market demonstrates signs of maturity and stability, with current trends pointing to a strong demand for this cryptocurrency.
