The Bitcoin market is experiencing a notable divergence between retail traders' sentiments and the actions of large holders. Retail traders are stepping back while whales continue to accumulate assets, creating interesting prospects for future price movements.
Retail Traders' Sentiment Declines
Amidst declining sentiments among retail traders, the sentiment index has fallen to a multi-month low, as confirmed by CryptoRank. Over 37,000 small holders have exited the market. The sentiment ratio, tracking positive and negative outlooks, has shown a tight correlation with price movements between March 18 and June 20, 2025. For instance, in late March, Bitcoin traded below $68,000 with a sentiment ratio of 1.25, but by early April this figure dropped to 1.00 as BTC fell below $64,000, leading to an increase in fear and caution.
Bitcoin Price Dynamics and Key Resistance Levels
The Bitcoin price chart since March 24 shows BTC hovering just above $75,000. A sharp drop to $72,000 was recorded in early April, marking the lowest point of the quarter, but bullish momentum returned by mid-April. By May 12, Bitcoin broke above the $100,000 mark, reaching a peak near $112,000 by the end of the month. However, June has proven more challenging, with red closes in two of the past three weeks and increased selling pressure around the $110,000–$112,000 resistance zone.
Impact of Macro Events on the Market
Since early 2022, Bitcoin's growth has largely depended on reactions to key CPI and FOMC events, each triggering breakouts or cooldowns in trends. The October 2022 CPI event marked the beginning of accumulation when Bitcoin traded around $18,000, and another CPI event aligned with a breakout towards $24,000 early in 2023. The latest June 2025 CPI data shows the price holding steady above $106,000, while the October 15, 2025 CPI event is projected in the $160,000–$170,000 range.
Despite the overall decline in sentiment among retail traders, large holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin. This creates uncertainty in the market but also leaves opportunities for future price growth.
