Bitcoin is showing signs of a possible strong rally, evidenced by on-chain movements rather than just price dynamics.
Increase in Bitcoin's Active Supply
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the share of Bitcoin's active supply over the past 180 days has begun to rise. This indicates that coins which have remained stagnant for months or even years are now being moved again. This usually points to either increased selling activity or holders redistributing their coins as prices continue to rise.
Supply Activity Trends
Historical analysis shows that significant jumps in supply activity often coincide with major price movements. For instance, in spring 2024, Bitcoin reached around $70,000 while supply activity rose to 20%. In December 2024, when Bitcoin first crossed the $100,000 mark, supply activity again rose to 18%.
Early Stages of Distribution
Despite Bitcoin's current steadiness around $100,000, recent data shows only a slight increase in supply activity to +2.4% in the last 30 days, which is low compared to previous cycles. This might suggest that many holders are not yet ready to sell. If Bitcoin pushes past $120,000, the percentage of active supply could slowly rise to the 8%-10% range before possibly reaching the 18%-20% peaks seen in past rallies.
Current data suggests that the Bitcoin market may be in the early stages of a new cycle. If prices continue to rise, this could lead to subsequent market movements.
