In recent months, Bitcoin has become a topic of active discussion among investors due to the expected price growth and the influence of institutional funds. Katalin Tischhauser, a leading analyst at Sygnum, shares her predictions and analysis of the current market situation.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators highlight the importance of cautious analysis given the volatility of the crypto market. The observed ‘double top’ formation indicates that Bitcoin’s growth may slow. Over the past 50 days, the price has oscillated between $100,000 and $110,000, reflecting a waning bullish momentum.
Experts warn that if Bitcoin retraces from $110,000 to below $75,000, it may drop to $27,000—amounting to a 75% decline from its peak. However, such drastic shifts are usually not driven solely by technical factors.
> 'The market’s reliance on sentiment complicates fundamental analysis,' Tischhauser explains. 'But absent an unexpected event like Terra or FTX, a severe crash is unlikely. With current political and regulatory tailwinds, an ongoing uptrend seems plausible.'
Impact of Institutional Investments
The current liquidity surge in Bitcoin is driven by increased interest from institutional investors rather than speculative narratives. Since January 2024, Bitcoin funds have seen over $48 billion in net inflows on Nasdaq.
Bitcoin is becoming a corporate store of value, with 141 public companies collectively owning 841,693 Bitcoins, maintaining consistent demand and prices.
> 'After thorough assessments, institutions incorporate Bitcoin into portfolios for the long haul,' Tischhauser mentions. 'This burgeoning institutional demand will bolster price support for an extended period.'
Halving Cycles and Their Effects
Traditionally, Bitcoin prices surge following the halving cycle every four years, subsequently peaking and falling. However, the upcoming 2024 halving may deviate from this pattern. Institutional dynamics are now exerting a greater influence, with miner sales contributing minimally to transaction volumes.
> 'With shifting market leadership, halving may not have its typical impact. Now, miner sales pressure is a minor part of daily trading volume, making supply reduction less impactful than before,' Tischhauser states.
Experts warn that past notable downturns were driven by political events and market shocks. Current resilience is due to liquidity and institutional interest. While careful technical analysis remains crucial, significant price crashes appear unlikely unless unforeseeable major events occur.
