Markus Thielen from 10x Research highlights key factors influencing Bitcoin in early 2025, including events like Donald Trump's inauguration and Federal Reserve decisions.
Bitcoin's January Predictions
Markus Thielen predicts a strong start for Bitcoin in January 2025, amid anticipation of Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. The release of Consumer Price Index data on January 15 might lead to market fluctuations. Thielen notes that a positive inflation report could push Bitcoin prices upward, but the FOMC meeting might temporarily slow momentum as investors react to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
FOMC's Market Impact
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is an 88.8% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain its target rate between 4.25% and 4.5% at its January meeting. This could significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory, as seen in December 2024 when Bitcoin dropped over 15% after adjusting 2025 rate cut projections. Thielen points to the Federal Reserve's language as being crucial for Bitcoin's price fluctuations. Thielen expects inflation to continue its gradual decrease in 2025 but believes the Federal Reserve may take time to adjust its policy accordingly.
Institutional Flow and Price Forecasts
Thielen also points to the return of institutional investors as a key indicator of Bitcoin's performance, highlighting that stablecoin issuance and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will signal institutional interest in the coming months. Thielen anticipates Bitcoin's stabilization between $97,000 and $98,000 by the end of January. John Glover from Ledn predicts Bitcoin could reach $125,000 before pulling back to $100,000, suggesting this level might be reached later in 2025 or early 2026.
Bitcoin's performance in 2025 will depend on a balance between macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. Trump-related rallies may offer short-term boosts, but FOMC meetings and broader economic signals will ultimately shape Bitcoin's future in the upcoming months.
