Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin could surge 300% this cycle. The study focuses on the AVIV ratio and changes in the OTC market.
What is the AVIV Ratio?
The AVIV ratio compares Bitcoin’s active capitalization to its total invested capitalization. Historically, when this ratio exceeds +3σ, it signals a cycle top. Currently, the AVIV ratio's level remains below historical peaks, indicating potential for Bitcoin to climb to at least $330,000 before reaching +3σ.
Bitcoin Dynamics on the OTC Market
Data shows that Bitcoin holdings on OTC desks in 2025 have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400. This could indicate that large investors are moving assets off exchanges, potentially reducing selling pressure and pointing toward long-term storage.
Price Predictions for Bitcoin
Sminston With's analysis supports a possible Bitcoin price range of $220,000 to $330,000 based on a simple moving average. Additionally, 30 bull market peak indicators suggest Bitcoin could reach $230,000, aligning with current optimistic forecasts.
The overall analysis suggests a strong potential for Bitcoin price growth, though risks remain, including market volatility and fluctuations in predictions.
