Current analysis of Bitcoin indicates a neutral zone where the price reflects a balance between overvaluation and undervaluation. The analyst shares insights.
Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply
Analyst Adler focused on a metric known as Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply, which helps determine whether Bitcoin is trading above or below the cost basis of the average holder. Unlike traditional price charts, this approach evaluates the value of all coins on the network based on the last price at which they moved.
365-Day Price Change of Bitcoin
According to Adler, Bitcoin's price change over the past 365 days now hovers around 30%. If Bitcoin follows previous macro patterns, this growth could climb toward 60–70% on a yearly basis, which historically triggers increased investor actions.
Investor Outlook and Risks
Adler noted that the current data suggests we are in a moment of balance, where both caution and optimism coexist. 'The data suggests we’re in a moment of balance,' Adler said. If this cycle holds, the coming months could see stronger upward pressure; however, external macroeconomic factors may either amplify or suppress momentum.
Adler's analysis positions Bitcoin in a calm before the potential storm — a moment of consolidation that could lay the groundwork for its next major move.
