Bitcoin has once again reached its 2025 lows of $91k, marking the fourth occurrence this year. This has extended its losses to 16% from a record high of $109.5K in January. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, believes the cryptocurrency's issues may not be over yet.
Current State of the Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin's recent dip to its range-lows of $91k in 2025 has extended its losses by 16% from its January peak. Investors are concerned about further potential declines.
Arthur Hayes’ Prediction
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and CIO of the Maelstrom fund, suggested in a recent X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin could potentially drop to $70k due to unattractive yields from CME Futures, pushing large funds to unwind. Hayes highlighted that the current short-term U.S. treasuries offer a yield of 4.3%, while Bitcoin’s CME basis has declined post-U.S. elections, prompting investors to seek other high-return opportunities.
Macroeconomic Factors Analysis
Analysts at Bitfinex have attributed Bitcoin's woes to macroeconomic uncertainty, also affecting the U.S. equity markets. They observed that the downturn has been exacerbated by Bitcoin's increasing correlation with traditional markets. Should the $91k-$90k support level be lost, it could alter Bitcoin’s market structure. However, Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder crypto VC, believes that this pullback is a typical mid-bull run reset, similar to 2021.
Bitcoin continues to face challenges both domestically and globally. Attention to yields and macroeconomic factors could impact its future dynamics and cycle culmination.
