As of May 21, 2025, Bitcoin's price reached a record high of $111,486, supported by macroeconomic factors and renewed investor confidence.
Economic Growth and Policy Shifts Support Bitcoin Price
Recent macroeconomic data indicates a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates a quarter-over-quarter growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025. Inflation has also eased, with June CPI data aligning with the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In response, the Fed maintained interest rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, although markets now anticipate rate cuts before year-end. In Europe, the ECB follows suit, forecasting an additional 25 basis point cut following target-level inflation data. Easing monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic often supports risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Weakness of the U.S. Dollar Enhances Crypto Outlook
One of the strongest macroeconomic tailwinds for Bitcoin's price is the decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). According to Trading View data, the DXY posted its worst performance in H1 in over four decades. Historically, Bitcoin's price shows a negative correlation with the dollar. Research indicates that Bitcoin tends to rally three months following significant dollar weakness. Concurrently, global liquidity is expanding, which often correlates with gains in crypto markets.
Institutional Demand and Regulatory Changes
May 2025 marked a turning point for institutional demand. Analysts attribute this to improved regulatory clarity, including U.S. legislation such as the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts. Additionally, the SEC is reviewing over 80 crypto ETF filings, paving the way for broader access to digital assets. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries are increasingly including Bitcoin on their balance sheets, encouraged by the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) decision to allow marking Bitcoin at fair market value. These factors are contributing to sustained price momentum for Bitcoin.
The convergence of favorable macroeconomic trends, expanding liquidity, and increased institutional interest paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin's price in the second half of 2025.
