Even with Bitcoin trading above $100,000, network activity is noticeably decreasing. This is manifested in the drop in transaction counts and shifts in transaction structures.
Daily Transactions Fall Despite Elevated Prices
According to Glassnode, from January to September 2024, Bitcoin's on-chain activity peaked with transaction volumes reaching 675,000 daily, corresponding to a price rise from $20,000 to $95,000. However, after Q4 2024, daily transaction volume sharply decreased to a range of 320,000 to 500,000, indicating a decline in demand for Bitcoin's base-layer utilization despite high prices.
Derivatives Market Transitions to Stablecoin Margins
The Bitcoin futures market has experienced a significant shift towards stablecoin-margined contracts. Since early 2023, the dominance of crypto-margined open interest has diminished, while demand for stablecoins has increased. Market participants are becoming more cautious, reflecting a trend towards prioritizing stability and liquidity amid volatility.
Large Transfers Dominate as Small Transactions Fade
Bitcoin's transaction structure is shifting, with transfers below $100K falling from 34% to 11% between January and May 2025. This indicates that large-scale transfers driven by institutional players and high-net-worth individuals are now dominating the on-chain volume. There is a growing concentration of capital among fewer participants, which could impact liquidity and Bitcoin's adoption.
In conclusion, the trends in the Bitcoin market demonstrate that high prices do not correlate with significant network activity, and changes in transaction structures indicate a shift in interest from smaller participants to larger institutional ones.
