Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler provided key data on Bitcoin's current market position, focusing on its price relative to average investor costs.
Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply
Axel Adler analyzed the metric 'Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply,' explaining that it represents the total dollar value of Bitcoins on the network based on recent price movements. 'The ratio between this metric and the Bitcoin price allows comparison of today's price with the average cost paid by investors.'
This value, defined as 'Ratio = Bitcoin Price / Realized Supply,' is similar to the price/earnings (P/E) ratio in stock markets. 'The higher the ratio, the more expensive Bitcoin is; the lower it is, the cheaper it can be considered,' he added.
Bitcoin Price Change Metrics
According to Adler, the current Bitcoin price is slightly above the annual average based on this ratio, indicating a neutral market position, neither overbought nor oversold. He recalled that a similar ratio was observed before the rise in November 2024, when Bitcoin increased from $74,000 to $107,000.
Potential Market Development Scenarios
The analyst also touched on another important indicator, the '365-Day Bitcoin Price Change,' which currently stands at around 30%. 'This means Bitcoin is currently increasing in value by approximately 30% annually, and if it follows a classic macro cycle, this increase could reach levels of 60-70%.' At that point, investors will need to decide whether to take profits or wait for further increases.
In Axel Adler's analysis, current data on Bitcoin indicate a neutral market state, along with potential growth scenarios in the future. It is crucial to monitor these indicators and make informed decisions.
