Analysis of Bitcoin suggests the current correction may be part of a larger bullish cycle. The absence of sell signals and signs of potential rebound support this hypothesis.
Current Correction and Forecasts
According to analyst Axel, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a correction within a broader bullish cycle. Despite two instances of overheating, no sell signals have appeared. The market remains in a key zone, showing potential for a rebound. Macro recovery, Federal Reserve policies, and political developments may drive a fresh rally. Axel Adler Jr.'s Bitcoin Investor Price Model suggests that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend. Key indicators, including Realized Cap, Thermo Cap, and BTC Supply, confirm this outlook.
Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
Bitcoin's historical price movements indicate defined cycles of rallies and corrections. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin surged to the sell level, triggering corrections. In 2022, it neared the buy level, marking a bottom before recovery. By 2023, Bitcoin climbed above the Investor Price Median, signaling renewed market optimism. In early 2024, Bitcoin approached the Hype Line, suggesting increasing bullish sentiment. A Hype Alert emerged, yet no sell signals followed. The Investor Price and Buy Level have consistently trended upward, reinforcing Bitcoin's long-term growth. These trends reflect broader market psychology and investor sentiment.
Liquidity Trends and Bitcoin's Correlation
Besides technical indicators, M2 money supply, a measure of liquid assets, is a key factor in market momentum. Historically, Bitcoin reacts to shifts in liquidity with a 70-day lag. Recently, the M2 supply rebounded ahead of Bitcoin, suggesting a potential price surge. As M2 has fully recovered, Bitcoin may follow a similar trajectory. Analysts believe this rally could surpass previous ones, driven by liquidity expansion and increasing institutional interest.
The recovery of the M2 supply and absence of sell signals support a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Historical models and current economic conditions point towards potential price growth.
