Bitcoin's recent market behavior showcases a blend of resilience and caution. After briefly crossing the $100,000 mark, the price pulled back, reflecting BTC's struggle to maintain its position. According to Glassnode data, this cycle differs from previous ones by its manageability, unlike the sharp surges and crashes of past years.
Reasons for changes in the bull cycle
In past cycles, Bitcoin prices soared after reaching new all-time highs, often driven by hype and extreme volatility. However, this cycle sees a shift — the Realized HODL (RHODL) ratio reveals that new demand comes in bursts rather than waves, and the wealth held in older coins is significantly lower. This suggests that while there is interest, it is not as aggressive as before.
Volatility has also notably decreased. During previous bull markets, Bitcoin's price swings reached 80–100%, while the current cycle is relatively calm, with volatility staying below 50%. This indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset, trading more structurally, without dramatic price surges.
Key price levels of Bitcoin
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around key support levels. If it manages to stay above $95,869, it could rebound and retest the $100,000 level, potentially triggering a new wave of buying and pushing the price even higher. However, if Bitcoin falls below $95,869, there is a risk of dropping to around $93,625. This could cause panic selling, as investors rush to cut losses, leading to additional downward pressure on the price.
Analysts' analysis and forecasts
Despite the potential risks of further decline, many analysts see this as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $100K. Analysts like PlanB highlight that Bitcoin's growth typically happens during 'red periods,' spanning from 6 months pre-halving to 18 months post-halving. Currently in a 'red period,' PlanB suggests there are 9 more bullish months ahead (February–October).
The current Bitcoin growth cycle is not about rapid gains. It is a slower, more stable ascent with opportunities and risks along the way. While many fear a further dip, others view this as an investment opportunity, considering the bullish market continuation forecasts.
