In his latest analysis of Bitcoin's supply dynamics, cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler notes that the market is still in the early stages of the macro cycle, offering interesting insights into investor behavior.
Bitcoin Market in Early Stages of Macro Cycle
Adler points out that the return of long-dormant Bitcoins to the market provides striking signals on the supply side; however, the majority of investors are not in a hurry to sell.
Historical Fluctuations in Bitcoin Supply
The analyst recalled two significant increases in supply volatility in past macro cycles: first, when Bitcoin rose to $70,000 in spring 2024, the percentage of coins activated within 180 days reached 20%. In December 2024, the activation level was 18% when Bitcoin first surpassed the psychological threshold of $100,000. These movements indicate that long-dormant assets, known as 'sleeper coins', were mobilized and redistributed into the market.
Supply Activity Forecasts
Adler noted that supply activity began to rise again after Bitcoin reached $100,000 again in June 2025, with the active supply ratio shifting from negative to positive by 2.4% in the last 30 days. However, this increase being lower than past peaks suggests that there remains a significant 'bullish buffer' in the market, and supply pressure remains limited.
Axel Adler's analysis emphasizes that investors are not yet ready for mass sell-offs, and Bitcoin market activity remains constrained. An increase in supply activity is expected as prices rise, leading to a subsequent distribution phase.
