Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, energizing discussions on cryptocurrency prediction markets like Polymarket. Participants anticipate further price increases.
Bitcoin Rise and Predictions
On November 11, Bitcoin's price exceeded $85,000, leading to a surge in prediction bets on Polymarket. By 10 PM, the price of 'yes' shares had increased by 87%, indicating a probability of reaching the $100,000 milestone by 2024. The total trading volume surpassed $2.7 million, with a 62% likelihood of the event occurring.
Polymarket's Popularity
Polymarket gained attention with its bets on the US election outcomes. The biggest bet, Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris, saw trading volumes exceed $3 billion. Polymarket's predictions have been viewed as alternatives to traditional polls.
Impact and Regulations
Bitcoin's surge post-US elections and Trump's win were seen positively, with potential regulatory changes and a national Bitcoin reserve on the horizon. Meanwhile, most Polymarket users found themselves at a loss, prompting regulatory attention. French authorities are considering blocking the platform, though Polymarket is inaccessible from US IP addresses due to CFTC concerns. Kalshi, the first legal prediction platform in the US, launched election pools despite CFTC objections.
Experts and market participants continue to view prediction platforms like Polymarket as sentiment indicators. While activity on the platform grows, concerns about security and regulation remain.
