Based on the analysis of unique metrics like NUPL and MVRV, three possible scenarios for Bitcoin are identified that could occur depending on how this ratio evolves.
Bullish Scenario: Target $150K–$175K
If the ratio breaks above 1.0 and sustains that level, it could signal a renewed impulse in buying activity. In this case, Bitcoin could rise to $175,000, echoing bullish patterns seen in 2017 and 2021.
Sideways Consolidation: Range $90K–$110K
Should the ratio hover between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may remain range-bound. In this case, Bitcoin could fluctuate between $90K and $110K as participants hold positions but hesitate to increase exposure.
Bearish Scenario: Risk $70K–$85K
If the ratio falls below 0.75, short-term holders are expected to take profits. This could trigger a market correction with prices retreating to the $70K–$85K zone. However, as one correction has already occurred, CryptoQuant's analyst suggests the first two scenarios are statistically more likely.
The analysis based on current metrics emphasizes the importance of monitoring on-chain signals to determine future price movements for Bitcoin.
