According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin's bullish cycle is over. A decline or stagnation is expected over the next six to twelve months.
On-Chain Data Supports Bitcoin’s Downward Trend
On-chain data plays a crucial role in understanding Bitcoin’s price movements. Key metrics such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL are essential for determining price cycles. According to CryptoQuant’s data, the 365-day moving average, calculated using the average of these metrics, is used to identify major trend reversal points for Bitcoin. Recent updates indicate that this moving average has entered a new downward trend. Historically, this level has been effective in determining the entry into bullish or bearish phases in the Bitcoin market. A similar signal has emerged as seen in the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Bitcoin Whales Begin Selling Assets
The actions of Bitcoin whales further reinforce expectations of a market decline. According to Ju, new whales are selling their BTC at lower prices than they initially purchased. This indicates a reduction in liquidity in the market. Historical data shows that when the bullish cycle ends, whales tend to sell large amounts. Similar situations were observed during the cycles of 2018 and 2021, leading to significant price drops.
Outlook for the Coming Months
Current on-chain signals also suggest that whales are taking profits. As a result, the market is likely to remain under selling pressure in the coming months.
Current metrics and actions by major investors indicate ongoing pressure on the Bitcoin market, potentially leading to further price declines.
