Bloomberg analysts have evaluated the chances of altcoin-based ETFs like XRP and Litecoin being approved in 2025. This article examines the factors influencing their approval odds.
Analysis of XRP ETF Approval Odds
According to Bloomberg analysts, the odds of an XRP ETF being approved stand at 65% in 2025. One of the key factors affecting this likelihood is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) stance on the asset. Unlike Bitcoin and potentially Ethereum, recognized as commodities, XRP is not currently classified as such by the SEC, which significantly diminishes its chances.
Comparison with Other Altcoins
In comparison, a Solana ETF has been given a 70% chance of approval. While Solana also faces regulatory challenges, the acknowledgment of Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal by the SEC may give it a better chance of approval than XRP. Among the cryptocurrencies assessed, Litecoin ETFs have the highest likelihood of approval, with a 90% probability, due to its lack of significant regulatory scrutiny as compared to other altcoins. Dogecoin has stronger odds as a proof-of-work cryptocurrency with no history of being classified as a security.
Polymarket's Optimism and SEC's Hurdles
Despite Bloomberg's moderate estimates, Polymarket users are more optimistic about XRP ETF approval. According to the prediction market platform, XRP ETF products currently have an 81% chance of approval by the end of the year. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously expressed certainty that an XRP ETF will eventually be approved. However, the SEC's reluctance to classify XRP as a commodity remains a significant hurdle.
Thus, the approval odds of altcoin-based ETFs depend on various factors, including regulatory positions and market expectations.
