The Bitcoin market is under significant pressure known as the BTC crash, which began with a correction in December 2024 and January 2025. We examine the current situation, influencing factors, and recovery prospects.
Current BTC Situation
According to the latest Ecoinometrics report, Bitcoin's price drop ranges from 20 to 40 percent from its peak and has lasted for 38 days. Historically, such corrections tend to last about 68 days before recovery occurs. Currently, BTC has fallen 28 percent from its all-time high of $109,000 to $78,375.
Influencing Factors on BTC
Several factors influence the BTC situation. One of these is the substantial fund outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, which hit a record high one-day level. At the same time, actions by the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve create a challenging economic context. As Nasdaq and other risk assets also experience corrections, supporting BTC's recovery becomes difficult.
BTC Price Recovery Prospects
Despite current difficulties, Ecoinometrics analysts remain confident in Bitcoin's ability to recover. Simulations show the likelihood of it falling below $75,000 is low. Prospects for a new peak of $130,000 also persist, based on market pattern analysis.
Given the current data and historical analogies, BTC's recovery from the crash seems possible in the coming months. However, the high correlation with Nasdaq and the Fed's policies could slow this process.
