The current Bitcoin bear market, marked by a 20% or more drop from its peak, has been relatively mild, and according to analyst Timothy Peterson, it is expected to last only 90 days. This article explores the factors that might influence the future of the cryptocurrency market.
Current Bear Market and Its Characteristics
Analyst Timothy Peterson compared the current downturn to 10 previous bear markets, which occur approximately once a year. Only four of these markets have had worse declines in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Peterson predicts that BTC will not significantly drop below $50,000 due to adoption trends, but notes that it is unlikely for BTC to fall below $80,000. He also forecasted a potential slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15.
Impact of Trade War on Crypto Markets
Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following the implementation of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several U.S. trading partners, which led to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports and raised fears of a prolonged trade war. This period cast doubt on Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven, as its price fell alongside other risky assets.
Investor Sentiments and Future Predictions
Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty. The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, reflecting the amount of BTC held for one week or less, declined from 5.9% during the historic bull rally in November 2024 to 2.3% as of March 20. According to analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face pressure until April 2025 when international negotiations could help reduce tariffs.
In conclusion, the current state of the Bitcoin market is characterized by a relatively weak downturn, influenced by external factors and internal trends. Future forecasts remain uncertain amid economic volatility.
