Recession forecasts in the U.S. today are of significant interest to analysts and investors. According to Polymarket, the probability of a recession by 2025 stands at 39%, decreasing from a peak of 66% recorded in March.
Decline in Recession Odds
Polymarket's forecast as of May 14 indicates a 39% chance of a U.S. recession by 2025. This figure marks a significant drop from the peak of 66% reached on March 2. The shift in probability signals a change in market sentiment.
Market Response and Sentiment
Trading volume on Polymarket regarding the U.S. recession has surpassed $5.31 million, highlighting the active participation of users in forecasting economic situations. It is noted that Polymarket data can serve as an indicator of broader economic conditions. One example includes J.P. Morgan's estimate, which suggests a 45% likelihood of recession by 2025.
Current Bitcoin Data
Amidst the economic forecasts, Bitcoin has reached $103,637, reflecting a 0.87% gain over the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $2.06 trillion, with a dominance of 61.18%. In the past month, Bitcoin's price has increased by 22.28%.
The current Polymarket forecasts on U.S. recession probabilities and the state of the Bitcoin market emphasize the need for monitoring economic indicators to inform investment decisions. The evolution of market expectations may influence future actions by financial regulators.
